India Prepares Contingency Plans for Weak Monsoon Impact on Agriculture

With rains running 43% below average and the IMD warning of the driest season in 11 years, the Centre is racing to shield farmers, crops, and food prices from El Niño.

By Naina, 24th June 2026

India is drawing up contingency plans to soften the blow of a weak monsoon, after rains arrived late and have so far run about 43 percent below average. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said on Tuesday that the India Meteorological Department expects the shortfall to continue through early July, raising alarm for a farm sector that supports roughly half the population. With the monsoon delivering about 70 percent of the country's annual rainfall and nearly half its farmland lacking irrigation, a deficient season threatens crops, water supplies, and food prices across the $4 trillion economy.

The trigger is El Niño, the Pacific warming pattern that NOAA confirmed is now under way and that historically weakens India's monsoon. The IMD has projected below-normal seasonal rains, the first such year in three, and warned the country could see its driest monsoon in 11 years. In response, the government has moved into preparation mode, prioritising the most vulnerable districts and revising plans that had not been updated in a decade. Here is what is at stake and how India is preparing.

The Rainfall Shortfall

The numbers are stark. Monsoon rains are running about 43 percent below average so far this season, after reaching Kerala three days late, and the IMD has forecast continued weak precipitation through the week ending 2 July. For the full June-to-September season, the department projects rainfall at around 90 percent of the long-period average, the threshold near which a monsoon is classed as deficient. The monsoon core zone, which covers most of India's rainfed farmland, is expected to fare worse, raising the risk of real stress on agriculture and water.

The El Niño Trigger

The driver is El Niño. The US weather agency NOAA confirmed in mid-June that the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is now active in the tropical Pacific, with forecasters warning of a potentially severe event. El Niño years are historically linked to weaker Indian monsoons, more frequent heatwaves, and greater stress on crops and water. The IMD has flagged a high probability of deficient rainfall and above-normal heatwave days, a combination that worries both farmers and policymakers as the kharif planting season gets under way.

The Crops at Risk

A weak monsoon strikes at the heart of the kharif season, when farmers plant rice, corn, cotton, soya beans, and sugar cane. With nearly half of India's farmland dependent on rain rather than irrigation, a delayed or patchy monsoon can hit sowing, lower yields, and squeeze farm incomes. The risk extends to pulses and oilseeds, where India is working to cut import dependence. Lower output in these crops would feed directly into food inflation, the very pressure the central bank has flagged as a constraint on cutting interest rates.

The Government's Contingency Plans

The Centre has moved into crisis-preparation mode. The agriculture ministry has ordered a rapid overhaul of district contingency plans, many of which were more than a decade old, and asked the Indian Council of Agricultural Research and state agricultural universities to revise them specifically for an El Niño year. Between 150 and 200 of the most vulnerable districts have been placed on priority watch, with the sharpest risk flagged across the Marathwada and north Karnataka belt. The revised plans set out stage-wise crop and irrigation responses to match different rainfall scenarios.

The Water Cushion

There is one important buffer. Reservoir levels entered the season in relatively healthy shape, with the Central Water Commission reporting storage well above the normal for the period, a cushion that matters for irrigation in a below-normal year. That stored water can help bridge dry spells during the kharif season and support the following rabi crop. Even so, officials caution that reservoirs deplete quickly under sustained deficits, and a prolonged shortfall could erode the advantage and carry stress into the next crop cycle.

The Seeds and Supplies Response

On inputs, the government has sought to reassure farmers. Chouhan has said there is adequate availability of seeds and fertiliser for the kharif season, and has asked states to brace for low rainfall and challenging conditions. A central task force is also weighing contingency measures including alternative cropping advice, drought-tolerant seed varieties, and, if needed, import strategies for key commodities. The aim is to keep both the planting season and the food supply chain stable even if the rains disappoint.

The Economic Stakes

The monsoon's reach extends well beyond the farm. Agriculture remains central to rural demand, and a weak season can dent consumption across the economy, from tractors to consumer goods. Food inflation is the most immediate channel: shortfalls in staples push up prices, complicating the Reserve Bank of India's room to ease policy. Weaker hydropower generation and water stress in cities add further strain. For a $4 trillion economy the world is watching for growth, the monsoon remains one of the largest single swing factors each year.

The Risks Beyond This Season

Officials are also looking past the immediate kharif crop. A task force studying the situation has warned that a sustained rainfall deficit could spill into the rabi season and even the following year, especially if reservoirs run low. The picture is complicated by fertiliser supply concerns and the possibility that El Niño persists. That longer horizon is why the government is treating the revision of contingency plans as urgent rather than routine, aiming to be ready for a multi-season strain rather than a single bad month.

The Road Ahead

For now, much depends on whether the monsoon recovers in the weeks ahead. Mumbai's first heavy rains this week offered some relief after a brutal heat spell, but a single downpour does not reverse a season-long deficit. The government's contingency planning, district watch lists, input assurances, and water management buys flexibility, but the real test will be the spread of rain through July and August. A weak monsoon need not become a crisis if preparation holds, yet it remains the biggest near-term risk to India's farms, food prices, and growth. This is analysis, not investment advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

How weak is the 2026 monsoon so far?
Rains are running about 43 percent below average as of late June, after arriving three days late in Kerala. The IMD projects below-normal seasonal rainfall of around 90 percent of the long-period average, potentially the driest monsoon in 11 years.

Why is the monsoon so important for India?
It delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall and is critical for crops and water, with nearly half of farmland lacking irrigation and about half the population dependent on farming for a living.

What contingency plans is the government making?
The Centre is overhauling decade-old district plans, prioritising 150 to 200 vulnerable districts, and asking research bodies to design stage-wise crop and irrigation responses, while assuring adequate seeds and fertiliser for the kharif season.

What is causing the weak monsoon?
El Niño, a Pacific warming pattern confirmed active in mid-June, which is historically linked to weaker Indian monsoons, more heatwaves, and greater stress on agriculture and water.

How could a weak monsoon affect the economy?
It can lower crop output and rural incomes, push up food inflation, strain water supplies and hydropower, and dent broader consumption, making it one of the biggest annual swing factors for India's economy.