Brokerage Consensus Estimates

10 brokerages project SBI Q3 FY26 PAT ₹18,500 crore (+25% YoY) beating FY25 record ₹14,800 crore, driven by 16.5% loan growth ₹52 lakh crore portfolio. NII expected ₹38,200 crore (+15%) via NIM expansion 3.85% from 3.65%. Fee income ₹12,500 crore (+18%) treasury gains ₹3,800 crore. EPS ₹127 versus ₹102 YoY.

Loan Portfolio Growth Drivers

Corporate loans surge 18% led by infra ₹12 lakh crore (+25%), SME 16% revival working capital demand. Retail housing 14% mortgage pipeline ₹8 lakh crore, personal loans +20% festive disbursals. Deposit growth accelerates 15% CASA ratio stable 44% versus 42% Q2. Credit-deposit ratio 88% manageable.

Net Interest Margin Trajectory

NIM expansion to 3.85% via MCLR +15bps hike transmission, low-cost CASA 44% optimization. Treasury portfolio MTM gains ₹3,800 crore 10-year G-Sec 7.25% yield capture. Overseas operations contribute 12% NII NRE deposits $25 billion stable.

Asset Quality Improvement Metrics

Gross NPA ratio improves to 2.1% from 2.4% Q2, net NPA 0.6% versus 0.7%. Slippages contained ₹8,000 crore quarterly versus ₹12,000 crore FY25 average. PCR 95% coverage buffer strengthened ₹2.5 lakh crore provisions. MSME restructuring 15% portfolio standard.

Capital Adequacy Position

Tier 1 CAR 13.2% exceeds RBI 11.5% mandate, total CAR 16.8% supports 20% loan growth FY26. Dividend payout capacity 30% ₹5,500 crore distribution Q4 FY26. CET1 11.8% comfortably cushions Basel IV implementation.

Technical Trading Framework

SBI shares test ₹950 resistance post-results with RSI 68 momentum building, support ₹910 solid 20-DEMA anchor. Nifty Bank 60,800 decisively breaches 61,200 target trajectory, VIX 13.2 stability favors 75% upside probability. F&O open interest SBI 950CE 12 lakh contracts heavy.

Peer Comparison Snapshot

SBI loan growth 16.5% leads BoB 14.2%, PNB 13.8%; NIM 3.85% trails HDFC Twins 4.2% but PSB scale advantage. RoA 1.05% versus sector 0.95%, RoE 18.2% crushes private bank 15.8%. CASA 44% outperforms Canara 38%.

Trading Strategy Post-Results

Buy SBI ₹910-925 target ₹1,000 (10% upside) stop ₹890, Nifty Bank 61,200 calls roll higher. Earnings dispersion 20% favors Q3 heavyweights. Portfolio allocation PSBs 25% overweight from 15% benchmark. Risk 8% drawdown to 59,000 Nifty Bank support.

FII Positioning & Flows

FIIs net buy ₹1,200 crore PSBs fourth session, DIIs ₹850 crore absorption. Stake building SBI 15% FII holding versus 12% FY25. Index heavyweights 35% Nifty Bank weightage amplifies flows. Block deal activity ₹2,500 crore PSU banks pipeline.

Risks & Contingency Factors

Downside risks US yield spike 7.5% 10Y G-Sec impacting NIM +20bps headwind, Q3 rainfall impact agriculture slippages ₹3,000 crore. Upside dividend hike surprise 35% payout ₹6,000 crore. Base case 75% probability beat consensus 8%.

Strategic Investment Thesis

FY27 SBI PAT ₹75,000 crore trajectory 20% CAGR, Nifty Bank 68,000 target 12-month horizon. PSB re-rating cycle P/B 1.8x versus 1.4x FY25. Structural CASA advantage compounds 18% RoE decade trajectory confirmed.